Metaculus

A remote MCP server for the Metaculus forecasting platform, running on Cloudflare Workers (free tier, stateless, zero server-side secrets). It wraps the official Metaculus API v2 so any MCP-capable agent (Claude, etc.) can browse forecasting questions, submit/withdraw forecasts — including continuous questions via an automatic percentile-sketch → 201-point-CDF builder — post rationale comments, and pull its own score/forecast CSV exports.

Every user supplies their own free Metaculus API token via a request header. The Worker holds no credentials and forwards the token only to https://www.metaculus.com.

Why this exists: Metaculus runs bot-only AI Forecasting Benchmark tournaments (metaculus.com/aib/) and publishes its own bot-template repos, yet as of 2026-07-12 there was no Metaculus MCP server anywhere — 0 hits in registry.modelcontextprotocol.io, 0 among 127 Metaculus-related GitHub repos — while adjacent platforms (Polymarket, Kalshi) have 10+/6+ servers each. This fills that hole.

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Tools

Tool	What it does	API endpoint
list_questions	Browse/filter the question feed: status, type (binary/numeric/date/discrete/multiple-choice/conditional/group), tournament and category slugs, time windows, ordering (e.g. -hotness). Returns compact summaries.	GET /api/posts/
get_question	Full detail for one post: description, resolution criteria, fine print, subquestions, and the question.scaling data needed to build continuous forecasts.	GET /api/posts/{postId}/
get_my_predictions	Posts a given user (you) has forecast on — your active book / track record surface.	GET /api/posts/?forecaster_id=…
submit_forecast	Submit one or many forecasts: probability_yes (binary), probability_yes_per_category (multiple-choice), a full continuous_cdf, or a percentiles sketch that the server converts into a spec-valid CDF (linear & log scaling, open/closed bounds, minimum-slope rules handled per the spec's documented algorithm).	POST /api/questions/forecast/
withdraw_forecast	Withdraw current forecasts on one or many questions.	POST /api/questions/withdraw/
post_comment	Publish a (public or private) comment, e.g. a bot's forecast rationale; supports replies and attaching your latest forecast.	POST /api/comments/create/
get_comments	Read comments, filtered per the API's access rule (author=<your id> and/or author_is_staff=true).	GET /api/comments/
download_question_data	Fetch the CSV Zip export (question/forecast/score data), unzip it in the Worker, and return parsed rows. Restricted endpoint — see caveats.	GET /api/data/download/

The MCP handshake and tools/list work without a token (so registries can scan the server); every tool call requires one and returns setup instructions if it's missing.

Authentication

1. Create a free Metaculus account, then generate an API token at https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/settings/account/#api-access (URL from the official API spec).
2. Configure your MCP client to send the token on every request. Accepted headers (first match wins):
   • Authorization: Token <token> — Metaculus's native scheme
   • Authorization: Bearer <token>
   • X-Metaculus-Token: <token>

The entire Metaculus API rejects unauthenticated requests (verified live 2026-07-12: GET https://www.metaculus.com/api/posts/?limit=1 without a token → HTTP 403 "The API is only available to authenticated users.").

Connect from Claude Code

claude mcp add --transport http metaculus \
  https://metaculus-mcp.anishboddu6.workers.dev/mcp \
  --header "Authorization: Token YOUR_METACULUS_TOKEN"

Or in .mcp.json:

{
  "mcpServers": {
    "metaculus": {
      "type": "http",
      "url": "https://metaculus-mcp.anishboddu6.workers.dev/mcp",
      "headers": { "Authorization": "Token ${METACULUS_TOKEN}" }
    }
  }
}

(Syntax verified against the Claude Code MCP docs, code.claude.com/docs/en/mcp, accessed 2026-07-12.)

Deploy

npm install
npm run typecheck        # tsc --noEmit
npm run build            # wrangler deploy --dry-run --outdir=dist
npx wrangler deploy      # needs a wrangler-authenticated machine

No bindings, no secrets, no Durable Objects — a single stateless Worker. observability.enabled = true gives you usage logs in the Cloudflare dashboard (tool calls log only method + whether a token was present, never token values).

Test locally

npx wrangler dev --port 8799

# 1) MCP handshake
curl -s -X POST http://localhost:8799/mcp \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" -H "Accept: application/json, text/event-stream" \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"initialize","params":{"protocolVersion":"2025-06-18","capabilities":{},"clientInfo":{"name":"t","version":"1"}}}'

# 2) List the 8 tools
curl -s -X POST http://localhost:8799/mcp \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" -H "Accept: application/json, text/event-stream" \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":2,"method":"tools/list"}'

# 3) Real call (uses YOUR token against the live API)
curl -s -X POST http://localhost:8799/mcp \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" -H "Accept: application/json, text/event-stream" \
  -H "Authorization: Token YOUR_METACULUS_TOKEN" \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":3,"method":"tools/call","params":{"name":"list_questions","arguments":{"statuses":["open"],"limit":3,"order_by":"-hotness"}}}'

Honest caveats (all from the official API spec, accessed 2026-07-12)

• Terms of Use govern the data. Per the spec's own warning: API data may not be used to train, evaluate, or otherwise create or develop AI/ML models without Metaculus's prior written permission, and any commercial use requires a separate written agreement (https://www.metaculus.com/terms-of-use/). Using questions as live LLM context to forecast is exactly what Metaculus's own bot tournaments invite — but do not resell or train on the data.
• Community Prediction is tier-limited. Normal authenticated accounts see CP aggregates on only ~50 questions. A free "Bot Benchmarking Access Tier" (requested via the Metaculus Data Needs Google Form linked at metaculus.com/api/) extends CP/resolution access to ~250 open + ~250 resolved questions. Your own predictions/scores/comments are always available to you.
• download_question_data (and the email variant) are restricted endpoints — the spec directs users to the same Data Needs Form for access, and project_id exports additionally need per-project whitelisting. Expect 4xx errors without that grant.
• Rate limits: UNKNOWN. The spec states request throttling applies to metaculus.com but publishes no numbers. The server surfaces 429s verbatim with a back-off hint.
• No free-text search. The documented GET /api/posts/ has structured filters only; there is no documented search parameter.
• Comments access rule. When API access is restricted, GET /api/comments/ requests must filter by author=<your own user id> and/or author_is_staff=true.

Publishing to registries

Current state: this server has not been submitted anywhere yet. All three processes below were verified 2026-07-12; each requires human steps (accounts/logins).

1. Official MCP Registry (registry.modelcontextprotocol.io) — publish server.json (template included in this repo; fill in your GitHub username + workers.dev URL) with the mcp-publisher CLI. GitHub-based authentication requires the server name to start with io.github.<your-username>/. Remote-only servers need no npm package — the remotes entry with your public Workers URL is enough, and the included headers entry (isRequired/isSecret) tells clients to collect the user's token. Source: modelcontextprotocol/registry repo docs (quickstart.mdx, remote-servers.mdx).
2. mcp.so — submissions "only support public GitHub MCP servers": push this directory to a public GitHub repo, sign in at mcp.so, submit the repo URL at https://mcp.so/submit, then complete the draft (saving publishes it). Source: the mcp.so submit page, fetched 2026-07-12.
3. Smithery (smithery.ai) — go to https://smithery.ai/new, enter the server's public HTTPS URL, and complete the publishing flow (requirement: Streamable HTTP transport — this server complies). Smithery scans the server to extract tool metadata; because this server answers initialize/tools/list without a token, the automatic scan can complete. Source: smithery.ai/docs/build/publish.md, fetched 2026-07-12.

So the one hard human prerequisite across registries: a public GitHub repo (required by mcp.so; also the natural namespace proof for the official registry) and the respective account logins.

Monetization (honest note)

MCP has no native billing layer. v1 is free and usage-logged (Cloudflare observability shows request counts and authed/unauthed split). If usage materializes, later options include a hosted "pro" tier (e.g. caching, scheduled scans, portfolio alerts) — but note the Metaculus ToS clause above: any commercial use of Metaculus API data itself requires a written agreement with Metaculus, so monetize the tooling/infrastructure only after securing that, or keep it free as a distribution/reputation asset.

Architecture

• src/index.ts — Worker entry: token extraction from headers, / info page, /mcp endpoint via createMcpHandler (Cloudflare Agents SDK, Streamable HTTP transport). A fresh McpServer per request (MCP SDK ≥ 1.26.0 requirement for stateless servers).
• src/server.ts — the 8 tool registrations (zod schemas + response slimming to keep agent context small).
• src/metaculus.ts — thin authenticated fetch client for https://www.metaculus.com/api.
• src/cdf.ts — TypeScript port of the CDF algorithms documented in the official API spec: nominal→scaled location (linear + logarithmic zero_point scaling), percentile-sketch interpolation, the spec's bound/slope standardization step, and validation of all documented CDF rules (16 unit checks pass, including the spec's own scaling examples).
• Stack: agents 0.17.3, @modelcontextprotocol/sdk 1.29.0, zod 4, fflate (CSV-zip parsing), TypeScript 5 strict, wrangler v4.

Sources (all accessed 2026-07-12)

• Official Metaculus OpenAPI 3.0.0 spec (version 2.0.0): https://raw.githubusercontent.com/Metaculus/metaculus/main/docs/openapi.yml (rendered at https://www.metaculus.com/api/) — endpoints, parameters, payload schemas, TokenAuth scheme, access tiers, ToS restrictions, CDF algorithm and rules, restricted-endpoint notes.
• Live auth behavior: GET https://www.metaculus.com/api/posts/?limit=1 → HTTP 403 (unauthenticated).
• Cloudflare Agents SDK MCP docs: https://developers.cloudflare.com/agents/model-context-protocol/apis/handler-api/ (createMcpHandler, stateless pattern, SDK 1.26.0 breaking change) and .../apis/agent-api/.
• MCP Registry publishing: https://github.com/modelcontextprotocol/registry — docs/modelcontextprotocol-io/quickstart.mdx and remote-servers.mdx.
• mcp.so submission requirements: https://mcp.so/submit.
• Smithery publishing: https://smithery.ai/docs/build/publish.md.
• Claude Code client config syntax: https://code.claude.com/docs/en/mcp.md.