Server

Prediction market probability oracle for AI agents.

npm version License: MIT MCP Compatible Node 18+

What is this?

TeleKash is the probability oracle for the agent economy. Real-time access to 4,500+ live prediction markets from Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) and Polymarket. Structured trading signals, cross-source arbitrage detection, noise filtering, and smart trade routing across crypto, politics, sports, entertainment, finance, weather, tech, and science.

What makes it different:

• Multi-source — Kalshi + Polymarket + native pools, not single-exchange
• Self-calibrating — Platt scaling with daily recalibration cycles and Brier score tracking
• Universal Payment Layer — agents pay per-call with USDC (Base/Polygon/Solana via x402), fiat (Stripe), or TON
• 28 tools — from free probabilities to broker execution with 1% commission

Quick Install

npx telekash-mcp-server

Claude Code

claude mcp add telekash-oracle npx telekash-mcp-server

Claude Desktop / Cursor

Add to your MCP configuration file:

{
  "mcpServers": {
    "telekash-oracle": {
      "command": "npx",
      "args": ["telekash-mcp-server"]
    }
  }
}

Tools

28 tools across 4 categories. All tools work without an API key on the Free tier (100 queries/day). 4,500+ live markets.

Intelligence

Tool	What it does	Tier
get_probability	Real-time YES/NO probability with volume-weighted confidence score	Free
list_markets	Browse markets by category, source, jurisdiction, with sorting	Free
search_markets	Full-text search across 4,500+ markets	Free
get_history	Historical probability changes over 1h, 24h, 7d, 30d	Free
get_sentiment	AI sentiment analysis with conviction, momentum, and noise filter	Free
get_market_stats	Aggregate statistics across all markets and sources	Free
get_trending	Markets with the biggest probability swings	Free
compare_sources	Kalshi vs Polymarket side-by-side odds comparison	Calibration

Analytics

Tool	What it does	Tier
detect_arbitrage	Cross-source arbitrage opportunities with buy/sell signals	Calibration
get_signal	Structured TPF signal: probability + sentiment + noise filter + verdict	Calibration
get_divergences	Markets where sources disagree most (STRONG/MODERATE/WEAK)	Calibration
get_edge	Kelly Criterion sizing, expected value, and risk classification	Calibration
track_prediction	Record predictions for accuracy tracking	Calibration
get_performance	Brier score, calibration curve, edge-vs-market analysis	Calibration

Trading

Tool	What it does	Tier
execute_trade	Route trades to Kalshi, Polymarket, or native parimutuel pools	Edge
get_order_status	Check fill status, price, and commission on broker orders	Edge
cancel_order	Cancel pending or submitted broker orders	Edge
get_pool_status	Native pool composition, participant counts, implied odds	Edge
get_agent_balance	Agent balance, P&L, win rate, and pool position count	Edge
get_resolution_status	Multi-source resolution verification and confidence levels	Edge
create_market	Create custom binary prediction markets	Edge
export_data	Bulk export: probability history, resolutions, catalogs, arbitrage	Edge

Admin

Tool	What it does	Tier
generate_api_key	Generate a free API key (no signup required)	Free
get_usage	Check current API usage, rate limits, and tier status	Free
register_alert	Webhook alerts for probability crosses, mispricings, volume spikes	Edge
list_alerts	List active webhook alerts with delivery stats	Edge
delete_alert	Delete a webhook alert	Edge
get_health	System health: connectivity, data freshness, broker status	Free

Pricing

Per-query pricing. No subscriptions. Free tier requires no API key.

Tier	Cost	Queries/Day	What you get
Free	$0	100	Probabilities, search, trending, sentiment, stats, health
Calibration	$0.01/query	1,000	+ Cross-source comparison, arbitrage, signals, divergence, Kelly sizing, performance tracking
Edge	$0.05/query	Unlimited	+ Broker trading (1% commission), native pools (5% fee), webhooks, data export, market creation

Revenue model

Stream	Rate	Description
Intelligence queries	$0 - $0.05/query	Real-time probability, sentiment, signals
Broker trades	1% commission	Best-price execution routed to Kalshi or Polymarket
Native pool trades	5% fee at resolution	Parimutuel pools alongside Telegram users

Universal Payment Layer

Agents can also pay per-call without an API key or tier — attach payment proof directly in tool arguments.

Rail	Network	Asset	Fee
x402 (Coinbase)	Base, Polygon, Solana	USDC	Free (0%)
Stripe MPP	Fiat	USD (cards, bank)	2.9%
TON	TON mainnet	TON	Free (0%)

// Agent pays per-call — no subscription needed
const result = await client.callTool({
  name: "get_signal",
  arguments: {
    query: "Bitcoin 200K",
    x402_payment: {
      tx_hash: "0xabc...",
      network: "base",
      rail: "x402",
    },
  },
});

Get an API key

# Via the MCP server itself (free tier, no signup)
# Call the generate_api_key tool

# Or via Telegram
# Message @TeleKashBot with /apikey

Example

Connect to the server and query a market probability:

import { Client } from "@modelcontextprotocol/sdk/client/index.js";
import { StdioClientTransport } from "@modelcontextprotocol/sdk/client/stdio.js";

const transport = new StdioClientTransport({
  command: "npx",
  args: ["telekash-mcp-server"],
});

const client = new Client({ name: "my-agent", version: "1.0.0" });
await client.connect(transport);

// Get probability for a market
const result = await client.callTool({
  name: "get_probability",
  arguments: { query: "Will Bitcoin hit $200K by end of 2026?" },
});

console.log(result.content);
// => { probability: { yes: 34, no: 66 }, confidence: { grade: "HIGH", score: 82 }, ... }

More examples in the examples/ directory:

• quick-start.ts -- Connect, search, get probabilities
• arbitrage-scanner.ts -- Find cross-source mispricings
• portfolio-scanner.ts -- Scan markets and build a ranked portfolio
• market-monitor.ts -- Watch a market and log probability changes

Environment Variables

The server works without any credentials (returns demo data). For live market access:

SUPABASE_URL=https://rrkjtdnxkscukexbsrue.supabase.co
SUPABASE_ANON_KEY=your-anon-key
TELEKASH_API_KEY=your-api-key              # Optional: enables paid tiers
TELEKASH_PAYMENT_ADDRESS=0x...             # Optional: EVM wallet for x402 USDC payments
TELEKASH_TON_ADDRESS=UQ...                 # Optional: TON wallet for TON payments
STRIPE_SECRET_KEY=sk_...                   # Optional: Stripe for fiat payments
X402_FACILITATOR_URL=https://x402.org/facilitator  # Default: Coinbase facilitator

Data Sources

Source	Type	Sync Frequency
Kalshi	CFTC-regulated US exchange	Every 15 minutes
Polymarket	Crypto-native exchange	Every hour

All sources are aggregated, deduplicated, and categorized automatically across 8 categories: crypto, politics, sports, entertainment, finance, weather, tech, science.

Links

• npm
• GitHub
• Agent Card
• A2A Protocol
• TeleKash Bot

License

MIT