Market Intelligence

Recession probability, sector rotation, institutional positioning, macro cascade scenario analysis, real estate calculators, and real-time economic data — for Claude, ChatGPT, Cursor, and any MCP client.

Powered by the BullrunData API.

Quick Start

Claude Desktop

Add to your claude_desktop_config.json:

{
  "mcpServers": {
    "market-intelligence": {
      "command": "npx",
      "args": ["-y", "@bullrundata/market-intelligence"],
      "env": {
        "BULLRUNDATA_API_KEY": "your-api-key"
      }
    }
  }
}

Claude Code

claude mcp add market-intelligence -- npx -y @bullrundata/market-intelligence

Get Your API Key

Sign up free at bullrundata.com — 100 calls/day, no credit card required.

Available Tools (23)

Macro Intelligence

Tool	Description
dashboard_summary	One-call macro snapshot — recession probability, regime, Fed stance, 14 key indicators
recession_probability	15-component recession model with full breakdown and confirmation slice
recession_indicators	Curated key metrics block (unemployment, CPI, T10Y2Y, VIX, mortgage, etc.)
fed_stance	Current Fed monetary policy stance and Fed funds rate
market_regime	Market cycle phase (early/mid/late_cycle / recession)
confirmation_status	4 coincident indicators confirming or denying recession signals

Markets & Institutional

Tool	Description
sectors_rotation	Risk-on/risk-off signal from 11 sector ETFs (cyclical vs defensive) with leaders/laggards
institutional_cftc	CFTC Commitments of Traders — institutional futures positioning
institutional_tic	Treasury International Capital flows — net foreign Treasury demand

Real Estate Calculators

Tool	Description
investment_property_analysis	Rental property analysis: cap rate, DSCR, cash flow, 1% rule
brrrr_analysis	BRRRR deal scoring (0-100) with 70% rule and full breakdown

Economic Data

Tool	Description
economic_indicator	Time series for any tracked indicator (VIXCLS, UNRATE, CPIAUCSL, T10Y2Y, etc.)
list_indicators	List all tracked indicators, optionally filtered by category
interest_rates	Fed Policy + Interest Rates categories
inflation_data	All Inflation-category indicators
employment_data	Labor Market category (unemployment, payrolls, claims, JOLTS)
housing_data	Housing category (mortgage rates, starts, permits, prices)
yield_curve	10Y-2Y and 10Y-3M spreads with inversion check
market_sentiment	Markets + Financial Conditions + Consumer Sentiment

Cascade Engine (Macro Scenario Analysis)

Tool	Description
cascade_list	List all 10 macro catalyst scenarios
cascade_analysis	Full chain reaction for a catalyst with live data enrichment
cascade_search	Search catalysts by keyword (e.g., "oil", "dollar", "china")
cascade_by_category	Filter by category: geopolitical, monetary, credit, commodity, currency, structural

Available Catalysts: Oil Supply Shock, Dollar Liquidity Squeeze, Fed Emergency Rate Cut, US Recession, China-Taiwan Escalation, Yield Curve Inversion, Credit Market Freeze, EM Currency Crisis, Trade War Escalation, Sovereign Debt Crisis

Example Conversations

"What's the current recession risk?"

Claude uses recession_probability and returns:

Current recession probability is 37.9% (moderate risk). Fed stance: neutral. Market regime: mid-cycle. 0 of 4 coincident indicators confirming. Recommendation: Mixed signals require caution. Begin defensive rotation.

"Is this a good time to buy an investment property at $450K?"

Claude uses investment_property_analysis + interest_rates:

At $450K with 20% down at 7%, monthly cash flow is $287. Cap rate: 5.3%. Cash-on-cash: 4.2%. DSCR: 1.18 (healthy). Current 30Y mortgage rate: 6.38%.

"What's the market risk-on/risk-off signal?"

Claude uses sectors_rotation + institutional_cftc:

Sector rotation signal: RISK_ON. Cyclical sectors leading (XLK +19.7%, XLY +7.2%) vs defensive lagging (XLU -0.5%, XLV -2.6%). Rotation spread +4.4. CFTC institutional positioning: e-mini S&P long, gold short — risk-seeking. Playbook: stay overweight cyclicals, watch for rotation breakdown.

"What happens if oil hits $120?"

Claude uses cascade_analysis + sectors_rotation:

Oil Supply Shock cascade: Dollar demand surges (mechanical) -> Asian FX reserves drain (likely, weeks) -> Asian equity outflows (likely) -> Forced rate hikes in Asia (probable, months). Current sector rotation: RISK_ON, but energy (XLE) lagging at -3.6% suggests market hasn't priced supply risk yet. Playbook: inflation hedges (XLE, TIP) and cash reserves. Watch Fed swap line usage for systemic signal.

Configuration

Environment Variable	Required	Description
BULLRUNDATA_API_KEY	Yes	Your API key from bullrundata.com

Pricing

Tier	Calls/Day	Price
Free	100	$0
Pro	10,000	$29/mo
Business	100,000	$99/mo

Troubleshooting

Tools don't appear in Claude after install

1. Confirm the MCP server is registered: in Claude Desktop, check Settings → Connectors (or Developer) for market-intelligence. In Claude Code, run claude mcp list.
2. Restart Claude Desktop fully (quit, not just close window) — connector changes don't hot-reload.
3. Verify your BULLRUNDATA_API_KEY env var is set and valid. Without it, tools fail at first call.
4. If using the remote server (https://market.bullrundata.com/mcp) directly, complete the OAuth flow in your browser when prompted — Claude needs the bearer token before it can call tools.

401 Unauthorized from a tool

Your API key is missing, expired, or inactive. Get a fresh one at bullrundata.com/login. For the remote server flow, re-authenticate via the OAuth screen; the connector auto-provisions a free-tier key on first connect.

429 Too Many Requests

You hit your daily rate limit. Limits reset at 00:00 UTC.

Tier	Limit
Free	100 requests/day
Pro	10,000 requests/day
Business	100,000 requests/day

Upgrade at bullrundata.com/pricing or wait for the UTC reset.

OAuth flow stuck or times out (remote server)

The remote server uses GitHub OAuth. If the redirect hangs:

1. Confirm cookies and pop-ups are allowed for market.bullrundata.com and claude.ai
2. Try authorizing in an incognito window (clears cached OAuth state)
3. Check that https://market.bullrundata.com/.well-known/oauth-authorization-server returns 200 in your browser

First request is slow (~2–4 seconds)

Vercel cold-start latency on the serverless function. Subsequent requests in the same session should respond in <500ms.

cascade_analysis returns "live data unavailable"

The cascade tool optionally enriches with live BullrunData market data. If the upstream API is briefly unreachable, you'll still get the full catalyst tree — only the live overlay is skipped. Pass include_live_data: false to skip the live fetch entirely.

Tool returns stale data

Most economic indicators refresh on FRED's release schedule (daily for Treasury rates and equity indicators; monthly for CPI, employment, housing). Check data_freshness in dashboard_summary for the last refresh timestamp.

Still stuck

Open an issue at GitHub Issues or email [email protected] with: tool name, full error message, and approximate timestamp.

Support

• Website: bullrundata.com
• Docs: bullrundata.com/docs
• Issues: GitHub Issues

License

MIT