Polymarket Autonomous Trader

Claude-powered autonomous trading system for Polymarket prediction markets.

Features

• Thesis → Markets: Describe an investment thesis in natural language; Claude finds, scores, and recommends the best markets to trade
• Autonomous Trading: Claude monitors markets continuously and executes within configurable risk limits
• MCP Integration: All trading capabilities exposed as MCP tools in Claude Desktop / Claude Code
• Risk Management: Configurable position limits, daily loss limits, exposure caps
• HFT Extension Point: Abstract pricing engine interface ready for Kelly criterion, ML models, or poker-inspired strategies
• Confirm-Before-Trade: Safe default mode — Claude proposes, you approve

Prerequisites

• Python 3.11+
• uv package manager
• A Polymarket account with USDC on Polygon
• Your wallet's private key
• An Anthropic API key

Setup

1. Install dependencies

curl -LsSf https://astral.sh/uv/install.sh | sh
cd /path/to/Polymarket
uv sync

2. Configure secrets

cp .env.example .env
# Edit .env with your POLYMARKET_PRIVATE_KEY, POLYMARKET_WALLET_ADDRESS, and ANTHROPIC_API_KEY

3. Generate CLOB API credentials (one-time)

uv run python scripts/setup_credentials.py
# Copy the printed API_KEY, API_SECRET, API_PASSPHRASE into .env

4. Configure risk limits

Edit config.yaml to set position sizes, loss limits, and approval mode.

5. Connect to Claude Desktop

Add to ~/Library/Application Support/Claude/claude_desktop_config.json:

{
  "mcpServers": {
    "polymarket-trader": {
      "command": "uv",
      "args": [
        "--directory",
        "/Users/parthgosalia/Desktop/Polymarket",
        "run",
        "python",
        "-m",
        "polymarket_trader.mcp.server"
      ]
    }
  }
}

Restart Claude Desktop. The trading tools will appear automatically.

Usage

Search markets

"Search for markets about the 2026 US midterm elections"

Thesis-driven trading

"Analyze my thesis: AI regulation will pass in the EU before end of 2026"

Check portfolio

"Show me my current positions and P&L"

Autonomous loop

"Start monitoring markets for my thesis that crypto will have a major regulatory event in 2026"

Toggle autonomous mode

"Set approval mode to autonomous" (trades within your risk limits without asking)

Risk Limits (config.yaml)

Setting	Default	Description
approval_mode	confirm	confirm = approve each trade; autonomous = auto-execute
max_position_size_usdc	100	Max size per single position
max_total_exposure_usdc	500	Max total open exposure across all positions
daily_loss_limit_usdc	50	Halt trading if daily losses exceed this
min_edge_threshold	0.03	Min probability edge (3%) required to trade
max_kelly_fraction	0.25	Cap Kelly sizing at 25% of theoretical

HFT Extension

To plug in a custom pricing engine (e.g., ML-based or poker-inspired HFT):

1. Subclass PricingEngine from src/polymarket_trader/pricing/base.py
2. Implement compute_signal() and calibrate()
3. Register the engine name in config.yaml under api.pricing_engine

See src/polymarket_trader/pricing/base.py for the full interface.

Architecture

MCP Server (Claude ↔ Tools)
    ↓
TradeExecutor (orchestration)
    ├── CLOBConnector   ← py-clob-client (orders, orderbook, auth)
    ├── GammaConnector  ← market search
    ├── DataConnector   ← positions, P&L
    ├── ClaudeAnalyst   ← thesis scoring, probability estimation
    ├── PricingEngine   ← Kelly/HFT signal generation
    └── RiskManager     ← limits, approval gates

Running Tests

uv run pytest