Confirmation Outlook

A full-stack demo of a predictive supply-chain tool: instead of reporting last week's order-confirmation rate, it forecasts which materials will miss confirmation next week, splits the at-risk book into recoverable vs structural, and hands an operator the lever to pull.

▶ Live: https://demo.appliediqsolutions.com — no login, synthetic data. Write-up: https://appliediqsolutions.com/confirmation-outlook/

Northpoint Manufacturing is fictional. Every row of data is synthetic — generated by a seeded, documented generator — and every number on screen is then computed by a real engine that has no access to the generator's hidden state. The build fails if the engine can't honestly recover the planted structure (42-assertion validation gate).

Built by Ian Provencher. A de-identified rebuild of a production pattern from my supply-chain work — no proprietary data, code, or branding.

What it demonstrates

Layer	What's real about it
Predictive engine (app/predict.py)	Every probability is a measured frequency over week-to-week transitions — a risk table by (failing now × receipt-short × stressed) with min-support fallback, not a fitted black box.
Held-out validation	The final week is excluded from calibration and predicted from the prior week's signals: ~97% of actual failures inside the flagged register, ~80% worklist precision. The persistence floor is reported separately from the leading signal, so no metric takes credit it didn't earn.
Data layer	SQLite — synthetic world + precomputed warm state baked at Docker build time (cold start < 2 s). Rollups run live SQL.
Serving	One process: FastAPI REST (/api/*), MCP (/mcp/) for AI clients, and the React front, same validated numbers everywhere.
AI chat (/api/ask)	Claude answering over the same read-only tools, hard-capped for public use (per-IP sliding window + daily budget, app/ratelimit.py).
Front (web/)	Vite + React, hand-rolled SVG charts, dark/light instrument theme, glossary tooltips, xlsx exports.

Run it

docker compose up --build       # then open http://localhost:7860

Or bare Python (3.12+):

pip install -r requirements.txt
python -m app.build_db          # generate + bake + 42-assertion selfcheck
cd web && npm ci && npm run build && cd ..
uvicorn app.api:app --port 7860

The Ask tab needs ANTHROPIC_API_KEY in the environment; everything else runs keyless.

Verify it yourself

• python -m app.selfcheck — the validation gate (headline memoryless, risk gradient monotone, held-out recall/precision, partition assertions, measured-vs-planted recovery).
• pytest tests — API contract tests.
• docs/METHODOLOGY.md — how the synthetic world is constructed and why the validation is honest.
• Every displayed number is one curl away: /api/headline, /api/forecast, /api/register.

Architecture

generate.py ──> SQLite (synthetic world) ──> engine.py / predict.py ──> bake.py (warm state)
                                                        │
                              service.py (one JSON-safe source of truth)
                                    │            │             │
                                REST /api/*   MCP /mcp/   React front /
                                    └── agent.py (Claude tool loop, rate-limited)