Manifold Markets

An MCP server for interacting with Manifold Markets prediction markets. This server provides comprehensive access to Manifold's features through a clean MCP interface, enabling sophisticated market interactions and collective intelligence mechanisms.

Architecture

The server implements a complete mapping of Manifold Markets' API capabilities through a structured tool system:

Core Components

• Schema Layer: Zod-based validation schemas for all operations
• API Integration: Direct mapping to Manifold's REST endpoints
• Tool Handlers: Request processing with proper error management
• Type Safety: Full TypeScript implementation

Tool Categories

Market Creation & Management

• create_market: Create markets (BINARY, MULTIPLE_CHOICE, PSEUDO_NUMERIC, POLL)
• unresolve_market: Revert resolved markets
• close_market: Close markets for trading
• add_answer: Add options to multiple choice markets

Market Interaction

• follow_market: Track markets of interest
• react: Like/dislike markets and comments
• add_bounty: Add bounties for analysis
• award_bounty: Reward valuable contributions

Trading Operations

• place_bet: Execute market trades
• cancel_bet: Cancel limit orders
• sell_shares: Liquidate positions

Liquidity Management

• add_liquidity: Provide market liquidity
• remove_liquidity: Withdraw provided liquidity

Information Retrieval

• search_markets: Find markets with filters
• get_market: Detailed market information
• get_user: User profile data
• get_positions: Portfolio tracking

Social Features

• send_mana: Transfer mana between users

Verified Capabilities

The server has been tested through comprehensive interaction trajectories:

Successfully Tested

1. Market Discovery & Following

   • ✅ Market search with filters
   • ✅ Market following
   • ✅ Detailed market information retrieval

2. Trading Operations

   • ✅ Liquidity provision
   • ✅ Bet placement with probability updates
   • ✅ Position liquidation
   • ✅ Share selling

3. Permission Management

   • ✅ Role-based access control
   • ✅ Authentication handling
   • ✅ Error messaging

Permission-Restricted Operations

These operations are implemented but require specific user roles:

• Market resolution/unresolving (market creator)
• Market closing (market creator)
• Bounty management (market creator)
• Liquidity removal (liquidity provider)

Prerequisites

• Node.js 18 or higher
• npm or yarn
• Manifold Markets API key
• Minimum M$1000 balance for market creation

Installation

1. Install the package

npm install manifold-mcp-server

2. Get your API Key

1. Log in to Manifold Markets
2. Go to your profile settings
3. Generate an API key
4. Ensure account has sufficient mana for intended operations

3. Configure MCP Settings

For Claude Desktop

Add to ~/Library/Application Support/Claude/claude_desktop_config.json:

{
  "mcpServers": {
    "manifold": {
      "command": "node",
      "args": ["/path/to/manifold-mcp-server/build/index.js"],
      "env": {
        "MANIFOLD_API_KEY": "your_api_key_here"
      }
    }
  }
}

For Cline (VSCode Extension)

Add to ~/Library/Application Support/Code/User/globalStorage/saoudrizwan.claude-dev/settings/cline_mcp_settings.json:

{
  "mcpServers": {
    "manifold": {
      "command": "node",
      "args": ["/path/to/manifold-mcp-server/build/index.js"],
      "env": {
        "MANIFOLD_API_KEY": "your_api_key_here"
      }
    }
  }
}

Tool Documentation

Market Creation & Management

create_market

Create a new prediction market:

{
  outcomeType: 'BINARY' | 'MULTIPLE_CHOICE' | 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC' | 'POLL' | 'BOUNTIED_QUESTION'
  question: string
  description?: string | {
    type: 'doc'
    content: any[]
  }
  closeTime?: number // Unix timestamp ms
  visibility?: 'public' | 'unlisted'
  initialProb?: number // Required for BINARY (1-99)
  min?: number // Required for PSEUDO_NUMERIC
  max?: number // Required for PSEUDO_NUMERIC
  isLogScale?: boolean
  initialValue?: number // Required for PSEUDO_NUMERIC
  answers?: string[] // Required for MULTIPLE_CHOICE/POLL
  addAnswersMode?: 'DISABLED' | 'ONLY_CREATOR' | 'ANYONE'
  shouldAnswersSumToOne?: boolean
  totalBounty?: number // Required for BOUNTIED_QUESTION
}

unresolve_market

Unresolve a previously resolved market:

{
  contractId: string
  answerId?: string // For multiple choice markets
}

close_market

Close a market for trading:

{
  contractId: string
  closeTime?: number // Optional close time
}

Market Interaction

follow_market

Follow or unfollow a market:

{
  contractId: string
  follow: boolean
}

react

React to markets or comments:

{
  contentId: string
  contentType: 'comment' | 'contract'
  remove?: boolean
  reactionType: 'like' | 'dislike'
}

Trading Operations

place_bet

Place a bet on a market:

{
  marketId: string
  amount: number
  outcome: 'YES' | 'NO'
  limitProb?: number // 0.01-0.99
}

sell_shares

Sell shares in a market:

{
  marketId: string
  outcome?: 'YES' | 'NO'
  shares?: number // Defaults to all
}

Liquidity Management

add_liquidity

Add liquidity to market pool:

{
  marketId: string
  amount: number
}

remove_liquidity

Remove liquidity from market pool:

{
  contractId: string
  amount: number
}

Error Handling

The server implements comprehensive error handling:

1. Input Validation

   • Parameter type checking via Zod schemas
   • Value range validation
   • Required field verification

2. API Communication

   • Authentication errors
   • Network failures
   • Rate limiting
   • Permission checks

3. Business Logic

   • Insufficient balance
   • Invalid market states
   • Unauthorized operations

4. Error Response Format

{
  code: ErrorCode
  message: string
  details?: any
}

Development

# Clone the repository
git clone https://github.com/bmorphism/manifold-mcp-server.git
cd manifold-mcp-server

# Install dependencies
npm install

# Build
npm run build

# Run tests
npm test

Contributing

Contributions welcome! Areas of interest:

• Advanced market analysis tools
• Portfolio optimization features
• Integration with other prediction platforms
• Documentation improvements

Security

• API keys handled via environment variables
• Input validation on all parameters
• Rate limiting protection
• Safe error messages
• Role-based access control

License

MIT