Weather Markets Edge Desk
FreeMaintainedKalshi weather markets: live daily-high temperature edges, plus EV, Kelly and base-rate tools.
About
Kalshi weather markets: live daily-high temperature edges, plus EV, Kelly and base-rate tools.
README
A hosted Model Context Protocol server that gives AI agents quant tools for Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets — expected value, Kelly sizing, Bayesian updating, probability conversion, cross-platform price gaps, live edge signals, and a 2026 NFL fantasy draft assistant.
Every signal our engines publish is graded against the market that priced it: 1,612 decided signals, +$98.40 net on a flat one-contract stake, as of Aug 18, 2026 — published per tool, including the engines that lose money. → predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record
- Endpoint (Streamable HTTP):
https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/mcp - Registry name:
com.predictionmarketspicks/quant(MCP registry) - Docs / landing page: predictionmarketspicks.com/mcp
- 24 tools — 17 free, 5 Pro, 2 free-with-depth-caps. No key needed for the free set.
- Fantasy draft landing page: predictionmarketspicks.com/draft — the eight draft tools, connect instructions, and the model behind the board
Connect
Any host that speaks Streamable HTTP (Claude Code, Claude.ai, ChatGPT, Cursor) — point it at the URL. Nothing to install:
claude mcp add --transport http predictionmarketspicks https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/mcp
Hosts that only speak stdio — this package bridges one to the other:
{
"mcpServers": {
"predictionmarketspicks": {
"command": "npx",
"args": ["-y", "@predictionmarketspicks/mcp"]
}
}
}
That relays the hosted server verbatim — all 24 tools, live data, tool schemas and result payloads untouched. Set PMP_API_KEY in the server's env to unlock the Pro tools; without one you get the free tools at free depth.
npx @predictionmarketspicks/mcp # bridge to the hosted quant server (default)
npx @predictionmarketspicks/mcp --draft # bridge to the fantasy-draft server instead
npx @predictionmarketspicks/mcp --local # 6 calculators, offline, no network at all
--local is a self-contained build of the six stateless calculators. It makes no network calls, so it runs in an air-gapped sandbox — but it cannot serve the live engines, the draft desk, or anything that reads a market.
Tools
Free tools need no key. Pro tools read the live PMP edge engines and require a PredictionMarketsPicks API key ($14.99/mo). Deeper results on the list-shaped tools unlock instantly and free — no key to copy, nothing to install: unlock here.
Calculators — free, stateless, also available offline via --local
| Tool | What it does |
|---|---|
calculate_ev |
Expected-value edge on a contract from market price + your probability; returns edge % and a BUY / SELL / SKIP read. |
kelly_size |
Kelly position size (full / half / quarter / eighth) from win probability, price, and bankroll, with a risk rating. |
bayes_update |
Update a prior with one or more pieces of evidence; returns the posterior and the per-step chain. |
convert_probability |
Convert between implied probability, American odds, and decimal odds. |
base_rate_gap |
Compare a market price to the historical base rate for a class of events; returns the gap in points + sample quality. |
combo_edge |
Grade a same-game multi-leg combo: EV %, fair vs offered odds, correlation-aware joint probability, negative-correlation trap flag. |
Markets — free, depth-capped
| Tool | What it does |
|---|---|
find_arbitrage |
Cross-venue price gaps between Kalshi and Polymarket on the same contract. Largest gap free; whole board on Pro. |
market_pulse |
US macro-health composite (0–100) and regime, plus six category scores. Composite always free. |
NFL + fantasy draft — free
draft_board · best_available · who_do_i_draft · compare_players · player_outlook · explain_player · sleepers_and_busts · adp_market_gaps · nfl_power_ratings · nfl_win_probability
The 2026 half-PPR board with model calls, tier breaks, ADP-vs-model gaps, per-player reasoning, and eight platform ADP presets. Single-player lookups are never capped.
Pro — live edge engines
commodity_edge · scan_mispricings · nfl_edge · nfl_prop_edge · edge_alerts
Trade tickets from the silver, gold, oil and bitcoin engines; Polymarket contracts trading away from the PMP model; NFL game and prop edges; the alerts feed.
All tool descriptions and outputs use prediction-market terminology (trader / position / contract / market analysis).
Source
This repo is the public home of the server: the manifest, the bridge, the offline calculator build, and the docs. The hosted service and its live data are operated by PredictionMarketsPicks — MIT license covers this repository, and no install is required to use the server.
npm install
npm run smoke # offline calculator self-test, no network
npm run smoke:bridge # bridge self-test against the hosted endpoint
npm start -- --local # stdio server, 6 calculators
Or run the offline build with Docker:
docker build -t pmp-mcp-quant .
docker run --rm -i pmp-mcp-quant
About
Built by PredictionMarketsPicks — independent quant tools and edge analysis for Kalshi and Polymarket, published by The 7 Oracles. Educational analysis, not financial advice.
License
MIT — see LICENSE.
Install Weather Markets Edge Desk in Claude Desktop, Claude Code & Cursor
unyly install weather-markets-edge-deskInstalls into Claude Desktop, Claude Code, Cursor & VS Code — handles npx, uvx and build-from-source repos for you.
First time? Get the CLI: curl -fsSL https://unyly.org/install | sh
Or configure manually
Run in your terminal:
claude mcp add weather-markets-edge-desk -- npx -y @predictionmarketspicks/mcpStep-by-step: how to install Weather Markets Edge Desk
FAQ
Is Weather Markets Edge Desk MCP free?
Yes, Weather Markets Edge Desk MCP is free — one-click install via Unyly at no cost.
Does Weather Markets Edge Desk need an API key?
No, Weather Markets Edge Desk runs without API keys or environment variables.
Is Weather Markets Edge Desk hosted or self-hosted?
A hosted option is available: Unyly runs the server in the cloud, no local setup required.
How do I install Weather Markets Edge Desk in Claude Desktop, Claude Code or Cursor?
Open Weather Markets Edge Desk on unyly.org, pick your client tab (Claude Desktop, Claude Code, Cursor) and press Install — the config is generated automatically, no JSON editing.
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