Market Intelligence

Recession probability, capital rotation, macro cascade scenario analysis, investment calculators, and real-time economic data — for Claude, ChatGPT, Cursor, and any MCP client.

Powered by the BullrunData API.

Quick Start

Claude Desktop

Add to your claude_desktop_config.json:

{
  "mcpServers": {
    "market-intelligence": {
      "command": "npx",
      "args": ["-y", "@bullrundata/market-intelligence"],
      "env": {
        "BULLRUNDATA_API_KEY": "your-api-key"
      }
    }
  }
}

Claude Code

claude mcp add market-intelligence -- npx -y @bullrundata/market-intelligence

Get Your API Key

Sign up free at bullrundata.com — 100 calls/day, no credit card required.

Available Tools (23)

Recession Intelligence

Tool	Description
recession_probability	Current recession probability (0-95%) from 15-indicator weighted model
recession_indicators	All model indicators with scores and values
fed_stance	Federal Reserve policy stance and weight impacts
market_regime	Market cycle phase (early/mid/late/recession)
confirmation_status	4 coincident indicators confirming or denying signals
sahm_rule	Sahm Rule calculation — predicted every recession since 1970

Capital Rotation

Tool	Description
capital_rotation_score	Risk-on/risk-off composite (-100 to +100) from 9 macro instruments
capital_rotation_instruments	All instruments with prices, signals, and scores
divergence_alerts	Correlation breakdowns and momentum shifts

Investment Calculators

Tool	Description
investment_property_analysis	Rental property analysis: cap rate, DSCR, cash flow, 1% rule
brrrr_analysis	BRRRR deal scoring (0-100) with 70% rule and full breakdown

Economic Data

Tool	Description
economic_indicator	Any economic indicator by series ID (GDP, CPI, UNRATE, etc.)
search_indicators	Search available indicators by keyword
interest_rates	Fed funds, treasury yields, mortgage rates
inflation_data	CPI, PCE, breakeven inflation, expectations
employment_data	Unemployment, payrolls, claims, JOLTS
housing_data	Mortgage rates, starts, permits, home prices
yield_curve	Yield spreads and inversion detection
market_sentiment	VIX, financial conditions, stress, consumer sentiment

Cascade Engine (Macro Scenario Analysis)

Tool	Description
cascade_list	List all 10 macro catalyst scenarios
cascade_analysis	Full chain reaction for a catalyst with live data enrichment
cascade_search	Search catalysts by keyword (e.g., "oil", "dollar", "china")
cascade_by_category	Filter by category: geopolitical, monetary, credit, commodity, currency, structural

Available Catalysts: Oil Supply Shock, Dollar Liquidity Squeeze, Fed Emergency Rate Cut, US Recession, China-Taiwan Escalation, Yield Curve Inversion, Credit Market Freeze, EM Currency Crisis, Trade War Escalation, Sovereign Debt Crisis

Example Conversations

"What's the current recession risk?"

Claude uses recession_probability and returns:

Current recession probability is 37.9% (moderate risk). Fed stance: neutral. Market regime: mid-cycle. 0 of 4 coincident indicators confirming. Recommendation: Mixed signals require caution. Begin defensive rotation.

"Is this a good time to buy an investment property at $450K?"

Claude uses investment_property_analysis + interest_rates:

At $450K with 20% down at 7%, monthly cash flow is $287. Cap rate: 5.3%. Cash-on-cash: 4.2%. DSCR: 1.18 (healthy). Current 30Y mortgage rate: 6.38%.

"What's the market risk-on/risk-off signal?"

Claude uses capital_rotation_score + divergence_alerts:

Capital rotation score: -3 (NEUTRAL / MIXED SIGNALS). VIX elevated at 27. Gold catching a fear bid. Copper holding — not a structural breakdown. Playbook: quality and diversification over concentrated bets.

"What happens if oil hits $120?"

Claude uses cascade_analysis + capital_rotation_score:

Oil Supply Shock cascade: Dollar demand surges (mechanical) -> Asian FX reserves drain (likely, weeks) -> Asian equity outflows (likely) -> Forced rate hikes in Asia (probable, months). Current capital rotation score: -13 (neutral/mixed). Playbook: inflation hedges (XLE, TIP) and cash reserves. Watch Fed swap line usage for systemic signal.

Configuration

Environment Variable	Required	Description
BULLRUNDATA_API_KEY	Yes	Your API key from bullrundata.com

Pricing

Tier	Calls/Day	Price
Free	100	$0
Pro	10,000	$29/mo
Business	100,000	$99/mo

Support

• Website: bullrundata.com
• Docs: bullrundata.com/docs
• Issues: GitHub Issues

License

MIT